Syria: Problems and Prospects

This evening I have agreed to say a speech in Toastmasters club which is a club that helps cultivate your public speaking skills. The topic I am going to speak about is the recent events in Syria. I got interested in the topic one day as I was reading the newspaper. For the past few days I have been working on this speech. Almost all the info in the speech is from WSJ and the internet.Given below is the speech:

Recently Syria was in the news because the Syrian president Bashar al Assad was ousted from power by Syrian Sunni insurgents known as Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham.

This move lead to opposition groups in Syria to be in control of large areas in Syria.

Syria, a country in the middle east has as its neighbors Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey.

The government of Basher Al Assad which has been in power for 14 years was a hereditary dictatorship that curtailed the free press and upheld repressive domestic policies.

There was opposition to this government in various parts of Syria for many years plunging the country into civil war.

In this speech my goal is to throw some light on the various conflicts and tensions between nations and groups in this region that help us understand recent events in Syria.

Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Gaza, West Bank, Israel are nations that are players in the historical conflicts of this part of the world along with terror groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

Although not a close neighbor to Syria, Iran has through their policy of proxy warfare and irregular warfare sought to become influential in the entire region.

Proxy warfare means avoiding direct confrontation yet waging warfare through indirect means.

Iran wages proxy warfare with Israel through Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen, and Iraq.

They along with other allies are known as Iran's axis of resistance in the middle east.

Iran wanted to send supplies for Hezbollah a terror group based on Lebanon through Syria. Only a regime friendly toward Iran would allow supplies for a terrorist organization to be routed through its country.

Iran's support of terror organizations is not recent. Iran succeeded in irregular warfare by creating Hezbollah in 1982. Iran piloted Hezbollah to victorious insurgency against Israel in 1985 and 2000.

After 2008 Iran had undisputed political dominion over Lebanon. After the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 Iran supported Shiite militias become the dominant political military force in Iraq. Outreach to Hamas via Hezbollah from the early 1990's secured Iran a foothold in the Israel Palestinian conflict.

The 2010 Arab spring, the 2012 destruction of the saleh regime in Yemen, and Iran's rescue of the Assad regime in Syria that same year contributed to Iranian influence across the region.

The ousting of Syrian president is probably connected to the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas which is a terror organization based in Gaza. Hezbollah which is another terror organization based from Lebanon supported Hamas in its fight against Israel. Israel mauled Hezbollah in November prompting the terror group to accept a cease fire with Israel. The decision to accept the ceasefire by Hezbollah was in contrast with Hezbollah's goal when it entered the war in October 2023. Hezbollah's decision for ceasefire with Israel came after Iran's decision to avoid retaliation for Israel's October 26 2024 attacks on targets inside Iran. This reluctance persisted even after Iranian leader said there would be a retaliation. Iran hesitated to retaliate because of the failure of Iraqi and Yemeni proxies to penetrate Israeli air defenses with drones and missiles. Israel continued to fight with Hamas in Gaza. Iran tried to support Hamas in Gaza but now Gaza faces Israel alone.

Russia and Iran long supported the Bashar Al Assad regime of Syria. Syria was the base of Russia's middle east operations. However

Russia and Iran who are allies of Syria were not able to help Syria much due to their preoccupation with other battles. Russia Ukraine Iran conflict in Gaza and Lebanon with Israel.

With the fall of the Assad regime the Russian army has been withdrawing from Syria. All of you would have seen on TV Russian tanks roll down the streets in Syria. Assad's fall would be hailed by millions of syrians as a victory for the nearly 14 year old rebellion against him that began with protests demanding freedom of speech and democracy.

The positive consequences of the fall of the Assad regime are as follows:

A dictatorship which did not allow democracy and free press has fallen.

This may result in the establishment of democratic institutions such as free press, free elections etc.

Syria controlled by Assad became a conduit for support to terror organizations.

A Syria no longer controlled by a dictatorship will not become a conduit for support to terror organizations.

Less terrorism means more democracy, sanity, peace and prosperity.

Less terrorism means the countries of the region can explore peaceful solutions to the conflicts in the middle east.

Iran with nuclear ambitions was doing something very wrong.

They were waging a proxy war on Israel..

They used Hamas, Hezbollah,Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria to fight Israel through indirect means.

Somehow the fall of the Assad regime made the proxy system collapse to some extent.

Syria's greatest challenge would be to build on these positive outcomes to establish a democratic nation that brings welfare to all its citizens and radiates peace, justice, prosperity and democracy in the region.

Thank you.